Question

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What will be the Bias for the table below? (Round your answer to 2 decimal places) 1 Period Sales(Smillions) Forecast Error Absolute Error Squared Error Abs Percent error 7 2 5 3 9 15.00 4 11 7.00 5 6.3 8.33 Your Answer: Answer Question 11 (1 point) Using Four period Moving average, what is the MSE(Mean Squared Error) based on the table below?(Round your answer to 2 decimal places) Four period moving averago Sales(Smillions) Forecast Error Absolute Error Percent error Squared error Period 1 2 3 19,8 15.5 15.5 12.1 15.11 20.4 4 5

Answer 1

Answer:

The bias for the table given is shown below:

t Ft |e=A-F A Sales ($ million) 7 lel lel? 14-FI/A Absolute Squared Abs Percent Error error Error Period Forecast Error 1 2 5 3 9 15.00 -6.00 6.00 36.00 4 11 4.00 4.00 16.00 7.00 8.33 66.67% 36.36% 32.22% 5 6.3 -2.03 2.03 4.12

Note: Bias is calculated only for those periods where both “Sales and “Forecast” both are available.

Bias = Cumulative Error for the data where both “Sales and “Forecast” both are available = (-6.00)+(4.00)+(-2.03) = - 4.03

Bias

-4.03

Excel working is as under:

А B с D E F G H 1 2 t A Ft |e=A-F lel? JA-FI/A Tel Absolute Period Sales ($ million) Forecast Error Squared error Abs Percent Error m Error 4. 1 7 5 2 5 6 3 9 15 =F6^2 7 4 11 7 =C6-D6 =ABS(E6) =C7-D7 =ABS(E7) =C8-D8 =ABS(E8) =F7^2 =ABS(C6-D6)/C6 =ABS(C7-07)/C7 =ABS(C8-D8)/C8 8 5 6.3 8.33 =F8^2 9

Answer 11:

MSE = 17.31

Note: MSE is calculated only for those periods where both “Sales and “Forecast” both are available.

MSE = Average of Squared Error = (0.39+34.22)/2 = 17.31

Four Period Moving Average t A Ft e-A-F, le A4-F/A lel? Period Sales ($ million) Forecast Error Absolute Error Percent Squared Error error 1 2 3 19.8 15.5 15.5 12.1 15.1 20.4 4 5 15.73 -0.63 5.85 0.63 5.85 -4.14% 28.68% 0.39 34.22 6 14.55 17.31 MSE

Excel working is as under:

A B с D E F G H 1 Four Period Moving Average 2 A Ft e-A-F lel A-F,/A lel? Period Sales ($ million) Forecast Error Absolute Error Percent Error Squared error 3 4 1 19.8 5 2 15.5 6 3 15.5 7 4 12.1 8 5 15.1 20.4 =AVERAGE(C4:07) =C8-D8 =ABS(E8) =AVERAGE(C5:08) =C9-09 =ABS(E9) 9 6 1=(C8-D8)/C8 =F842 =(C9-D9)/C9 |=F9^2 =AVERAGE(H8:H9) MSE 10 11