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A foreman for an injection-molding firm admits that on 46% of his shifts, he forgets to shut off...

A foreman for an injection-molding firm admits that on 46% of his shifts, he forgets to shut off the injection machine on his line. This causes the machine tooverheat, increasing the probability that a defective molding will be produced during the early morning run from 2% to 18%. The plant manager randomly selects amolding from the early morning run and discovers it is defective. What is the probability that the foreman forgot to shut off the machine the previous night?
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