# Problem 15-01 (Algorithmic) Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 6 Value... Problem 15-01 (Algorithmic) Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 6 Value 20 14 16 10 18 14 Using the naiïve method (most recent value) as the forecast for the next week, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy a. Mean absolute error. Round your answer to one decimal place. b. Mean squared error. Round your answer to one decimal place. c. Mean absolute percent error. Round you answer to two decimal places. d. What is the forecast for week 7? Round your answer to the nearest whole number.

 Time period Actual Value(A) Moving avg. Forecast(F) Forecast error E=|A-F| Squared Forecast Error |A-F|A 1 20 2 14 20 6 36 0.4286 3 16 14 2 4 0.1250 4 10 16 6 36 0.6000 5 18 10 8 64 0.4444 6 14 18 4 16 0.2857 7 14 Total 26 156 1.88 Average 5.20 31.20 37.67% MAD MSE MAPE

a

mean absolute error =5.20

b)

mean squared error =MSE =31.20

c)

mean absolute percentage error = 37.67%

d)

forecast for week 7 =14

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