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Please help. I'm stuck. DATA: Gassins These data show the number of palons of gasoline sold...

DATA: Gassins These data show the number of palons of gasoline sold by a gasoline distributor in Bennington, Vermont, over We

12 22 (a) Applying the MSE measure of forecast accuracy, would you prefer a smoothing constant of a = 0.1 or a = 0.2 for the

Please help. I'm stuck.

DATA: Gassins These data show the number of palons of gasoline sold by a gasoline distributor in Bennington, Vermont, over Week Sales (1.000s of gallons) 1 17 21 N 3 19 4 22 5 18 6 16 2 20 8 18 9 22 10 20 11 15 12 22 Show the exponential smoothing forecasts using a=0.1. (Round your answers to two decimal places.) Time Series Value Forecast Week 1 17 2. 21 19 23 5 18 6 16 7 20 8 18 9 22 10 20 11 15
12 22 (a) Applying the MSE measure of forecast accuracy, would you prefer a smoothing constant of a = 0.1 or a = 0.2 for the gasoline sales time series? O a 0.1 provides more accurate forecasts based upon MSE. Oa=0.2 provides more accurate forecasts based upon MSE. Both provide the same level of accuracy of forecasts based upon MSE. (b) Are the results the same If you apply MAE as the measure of accuracy? O c = 0.1 provides more accurate forecasts based upon MAE, so the results are the same. O a = 0.1 provides more accurate forecasts based upon MAE, so the results are not the same. O a=0.2 provides more accurate forecasts based upon MAE, so the results are the same. a = 0.2 provides more accurate forecasts based upon MAE, so the results are not the same. Both provide the same level of accuracy based on MAE, so the results are the same. O Both provide the same level of accuracy based on MAE, so the results are not the same. (c) What are the results if MAPE is used? O a = 0.1 provides more accurate forecasts based upon MAPE. O a = 0.2 provides more accurate forecasts based upon MAPE. Both provide the same level of accuracy of forecasts based upon MAPE.
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for exponential smoothing: next period forecast =α*last period actual+(1-α)*last period forecast
exponential smoothing
month value forecast
1 17
2 21 17.00
3 19 17.40
4 23 17.56
5 18 18.10
6 16 18.09
7 20 17.88
8 18 18.10
9 22 18.09
10 20 18.48
11 15 18.63
12 22 18.27

a)

Oa=0.2 provides more accurate forecasts based upon MSE.

b)

α=0.1 provides more accurate forecasts based upon MAE , so the results are not the same

c)

α =0.1 provides more accurate forecasts based upon MAPE

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