1.Please use the Hawkins sheet.
What is the MFE , MAE , MSE , and MAPE for a three-month moving average forecast? Round to two decimal places.
2.Please use the Hawkins sheet.
What is the MFE , MAE , MSE , and MAPE for the exponential smoothing forecast with alpha = 0.2? Round to two decimal places.
3.Please use the Hawkins sheet.
Based on the MSE values found in Questions 1 & 2, which forecast is best?
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Thank you very much!!
3-month moving average forecast | forecast error | absolute value of forecast error | squared forecast error | percentage error | absolute value of percentage error | |
80 | ||||||
82 | ||||||
84 | ||||||
83 | 82 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.204819277 | 1.204819277 |
83 | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
84 | 83.33333333 | 0.666666667 | 0.666666667 | 0.444444444 | 0.793650794 | 0.793650794 |
85 | 83.33333333 | 1.666666667 | 1.666666667 | 2.777777778 | 1.960784314 | 1.960784314 |
84 | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
82 | 84.33333333 | -2.33333333 | 2.333333333 | 5.444444443 | -2.845528455 | 2.845528455 |
83 | 83.66666667 | -0.66666667 | 0.666666667 | 0.444444445 | -0.803212851 | 0.803212852 |
84 | 83 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.19047619 | 1.19047619 |
83 | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
83.33333333 | ||||||
sum | 1.333333333 | 7.333333333 | 11.11111111 | 1.500989268 | 8.798471882 | |
MFE = 1.333333333/9 =0.148 | ||||||
MAE = 7.333333333/9 = 0.815 | ||||||
MSE = 11.11111111/9 = 1.235 | ||||||
MAPE = 8.798471882/9 = 0.97761 |
Exponential smoothing forecast (alpha = 0.2) | forecast error | the absolute value of forecast error | squared forecast error | percentage error | absolute value of percentage error | |
80 | 80 | |||||
82 | 80 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2.43902439 | 2.43902439 |
84 | 80.4 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 12.96 | 4.285714286 | 4.285714286 |
83 | 81.12 | 1.88 | 1.88 | 3.5344 | 2.265060241 | 2.265060241 |
83 | 81.496 | 1.504 | 1.504 | 2.262016 | 1.812048193 | 1.812048193 |
84 | 81.7968 | 2.2032 | 2.2032 | 4.85409024 | 2.622857143 | 2.622857143 |
85 | 82.23744 | 2.76256 | 2.76256 | 7.631737754 | 3.250070588 | 3.250070588 |
84 | 82.789952 | 1.210048 | 1.210048 | 1.464216162 | 1.440533333 | 1.440533333 |
82 | 83.0319616 | -1.0319616 | 1.0319616 | 1.064944744 | -1.258489756 | 1.258489756 |
83 | 82.82556928 | 0.17443072 | 0.17443072 | 0.030426076 | 0.210157494 | 0.210157494 |
84 | 82.86045542 | 1.139544576 | 1.139544576 | 1.298561841 | 1.356600686 | 1.356600686 |
83 | 83.08836434 | -0.08836434 | 0.08836434 | 0.007808257 | -0.106463059 | 0.10646306 |
83.07069147 | ||||||
sum | 15.35345736 | 17.59410924 | 39.10820107 | 18.31711354 | 21.04701917 | |
MFE = 15.35345736/11 = 1.3958 | ||||||
MAE = 17.59410924/11 = 1.59946 | ||||||
MSE = 39.10820107/11 = 3.555291 | ||||||
MAPE = 21.04701917/11 = 1.913365 |
3 - month moving average is best. because of less MSE
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