# 1.Please use the Hawkins sheet. What is the MFE  , MAE  , MSE  , an...  What is the MFE  , MAE  , MSE  , and MAPE  for a three-month moving average forecast?  Round to two decimal places.

What is the MFE  , MAE  , MSE  , and MAPE  for the exponential smoothing forecast with alpha = 0.2? Round to two decimal places.

Based on the MSE values found in Questions 1 & 2, which forecast is best?

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Thank you very much!!

Monthy Proportion of On Tme Payments 80 82 84 83 83 84 85 84 82 83 84 Exponential Smoothing Forecast (alpha-0.2) Forecast Error Absolute Value of Forecast E Squared Forecast Error Percentage Error Absolute Value of Percentage Error Total MFE MAE MSE MAPE

 3-month moving average forecast forecast error absolute value of forecast error squared forecast error percentage error absolute value of percentage error 80 82 84 83 82 1 1 1 1.204819277 1.204819277 83 83 0 0 0 0 0 84 83.33333333 0.666666667 0.666666667 0.444444444 0.793650794 0.793650794 85 83.33333333 1.666666667 1.666666667 2.777777778 1.960784314 1.960784314 84 84 0 0 0 0 0 82 84.33333333 -2.33333333 2.333333333 5.444444443 -2.845528455 2.845528455 83 83.66666667 -0.66666667 0.666666667 0.444444445 -0.803212851 0.803212852 84 83 1 1 1 1.19047619 1.19047619 83 83 0 0 0 0 0 83.33333333 sum 1.333333333 7.333333333 11.11111111 1.500989268 8.798471882 MFE = 1.333333333/9 =0.148 MAE = 7.333333333/9 = 0.815 MSE = 11.11111111/9 = 1.235 MAPE = 8.798471882/9 = 0.97761
 Exponential smoothing forecast (alpha = 0.2) forecast error the absolute value of forecast error squared forecast error percentage error absolute value of percentage error 80 80 82 80 2 2 4 2.43902439 2.43902439 84 80.4 3.6 3.6 12.96 4.285714286 4.285714286 83 81.12 1.88 1.88 3.5344 2.265060241 2.265060241 83 81.496 1.504 1.504 2.262016 1.812048193 1.812048193 84 81.7968 2.2032 2.2032 4.85409024 2.622857143 2.622857143 85 82.23744 2.76256 2.76256 7.631737754 3.250070588 3.250070588 84 82.789952 1.210048 1.210048 1.464216162 1.440533333 1.440533333 82 83.0319616 -1.0319616 1.0319616 1.064944744 -1.258489756 1.258489756 83 82.82556928 0.17443072 0.17443072 0.030426076 0.210157494 0.210157494 84 82.86045542 1.139544576 1.139544576 1.298561841 1.356600686 1.356600686 83 83.08836434 -0.08836434 0.08836434 0.007808257 -0.106463059 0.10646306 83.07069147 sum 15.35345736 17.59410924 39.10820107 18.31711354 21.04701917 MFE = 15.35345736/11 = 1.3958 MAE = 17.59410924/11 = 1.59946 MSE = 39.10820107/11 = 3.555291 MAPE = 21.04701917/11 = 1.913365

3 - month moving average is best. because of less MSE

##### Add Answer of: 1.Please use the Hawkins sheet. What is the MFE  , MAE  , MSE  , an...
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