Question

A friend who lives in Los Angeles makes frequent consulting trips to washington, D.C.; 40% of the time she travels on airline #1, 30% of the time on airline #2, and the remaining 30% of the time on airline #3 For airline #1, flights are late into D-C-35% of the time and late into L.A. 30% of the time. For airline #2, these percentages are 35% ard 15%, whereas for airline #3 the percentages are 35% ฮnd 15% If we learn that on a particular trip she arrived late at exactly one of the two destinations, what are the posterior probabilities of having flown on airlines #1, #2, and #37 Assume that the chance of a late arrival in LA. is unaffected by what happens on the flight to D.C. [Hint: From the tip of each first generation branch on a tree diagram, draw three second generation branches labeled, respectively, 0 late, 1 late, and 2 late.] (Round your answers to four decimal places.) airline #1 airline 2 airline #3

Answer 1