Ans 12.30%
| STATE OF ECONOMY | Probability (P) | RETURN (Y) | (P * Y ) |
| RECESSION | 29% | -9 | -2.61 |
| BOOM | 71% | 21 | 14.91 |
| TOTAL | 12.30 | ||
| Expected Return = | (P * Y) | ||
| 12.30% |
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