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Nominal Eachange Rates (Long-Run): Explain why a decrease in output supply in Canada relative to the US has an ambiguous effect on the nominal exchange rate, ECADI/uso, in the long-run

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Decrease in output supply in Canada leads to an adverse supply shock in long run and hence prices rise eventually in Canadian markets. Thus domestic goods become more expensive and hence imports become attractive due to relatively lower cost. Due to higher imports the Canadian Dollar depreciates drastically . Also this can lead to emergence of black market which can cause ambiguity in forex rates.

Now in long run the taxation policies change drastically as well as the aggregate consumption behaviour changes which causes less demand of goods and hence lesser imports and more of saving. This now leads to stability of Canadian dollar as it starts appreciation all of sudden.

Hence the wide fluctuations and volatility makes exchange rate ambigous.

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