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Name: 25 Game Theory ECN 416 FOSTER Score: Assignm ent #1: Introduction to Choice Theory Use a pencil. Put your answer in the appropriate place and box it. Show any work necessary to ensure partial credit. Staple these pages. 1) Draw the following probability distribution, (z), in tree form and state its expected value (3 pts) p(0)=0.15 (40)0.45 P(75)0.40 : EV(z) = 2) Draw the following probability distribution, (z), in tree form and state its expected value (3 pts) z p(20)0.50 p(40)0.20 P(75)0.30 3) Draw the final generalized mixed probability distribution tree for the (a, 1 - a) mix of z and z where 0 a1 (4 pts) Hint: Your drawing should have 4 branches and probabilities must be in terms of the variable, aName: 4) Draw the final generalized mixed probability distribution tree for the (0.7, 0.3) mix of z and z (4 pts) Hin: Your drawing should have 4 branches and probabilities must be in real numbers 5) What is the expected value of the resulting probability distribution in your answer above? (3 pts) 6) Using your answers from questions 1) and 2), what is the (0.7, 0.3) weighted average of EV) and EVz)? (3 pts) 7) Based on previous answers, what is the expression for the generalized expected value for the (a, 1- a) mix of z and z? (Hint: a should be the only variable in your answer) (3 pts) 8) What is the optimal value of a (i.e. the value that maximizes expected value)? (2 pts)

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Answer:

Question 1)

0.15 0.45 40 75

Expected Value=0.15*0+0.45*40+0.40*75=48

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