Question

1. Given the following time series data, compute the forecast (for 7) using: • Unweighted Moving Average using N = 3. • Weighted Moving Average using N = 3. • Exponential Smooting with a = 0.2 where F411 = OY: + (1 -a) Ft. Do NOT compute any MSE's. Weck Value UMA (N=3) WMA (N=3) ES (x = 0.2)

Answer 1

Week	Value	UMA	WMA	ES
1	18			18
2	13			18.0
3	16			17.0
4	11	15.7	15.3	16.8
5	17	13.3	13.0	15.6
6	14	14.7	14.8	15.9
7		14	14.5	15.5

Above is the excel output for each of the forecasts

For Unweighted moving average we simply take average of the last three period value.

For weighted moving average we take the following: $\frac{n}{n*(n+1)}, \frac{n-1}{n*(n+1)}, \frac{n-2 }{n*(n+1)}$

Therefore the weights are 3/6 , 2/6, 1/6

Forecasts for period 7 using

Unweighted moving average = 14

Weighted moving average = 14.5

Exponential smoothing = 15.5