Question

need to predict 3 scenarios for 2030 ( positive, neutral and negative) of regime complex about OPEC. ( shock of oil for example was the major critical conjuncture of OPEC organization in the 70s)

Answer 1

1)Opec expects global oil demand to rise by 2030 driven by transportation and petrochemicals. Oil will continue to play the leading role to 2030.

2) However the challenges ahead are as follows:

1. The challenge of supplying consumers, from both the rich, developed and the poorer, developing nations of the world, with the important portion of the oil they need and when they need.
2. Risks over possible future demand patterns are skewed towards the downside, due to a range of drivers. Example; the current financial situation, recent energy and environmental policy initiatives and higher tax rates tend to push towards a reduction in demand.

3)Volatility will continue to characterize the market.Prices witness significant movements, firstly upwards and then downwards.