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Outcomes Good outcomes BAD cutomes) Your chokesi build factory 100.000 - 45.000 Dont build factory Probabilities 75% | 25% W
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The Ending market value (EMV) for building factory is

= 100000 x 0.75 + (- 45000 x 0.25) [ The amount obtained for good and bad outcomes multiplied by their respective probabilities]
= 75000 - 11250
= 63750

The EMV of not building factory
= 0 x 0.75 + 0 x 0.25
=0

The EMV decision should be to build a factory as the outcome is positive with a value of 63750 whereas the decision to not build a factory is zero.

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