Question

Current global energy consumption trends combined with per-capita energy consumption of some of the most affluent countries, such as the United States, can be used to project the future course of global energy demand over the long term. Country P Million GDP P (S E GDP MJ COE (gram MJ) CO2 (mil. tounes) Year 2011 China Gerimany India Japan USA 1336.7 81.5 1189.2 127.5 311.6 7766 47373 1723 36215 55903 10.53 3.68 12.09 4.78 5.90 74.3 55.2 70.8 54.4 53.3 8121.7 784.3 1753.9 1200.7 5477.9 a) Using the data in the above table, calculate per-capita energy consumption in United States in 2011 in units of GJ per person. (5 points) b) If the world population ultimately stabilizes at 10 billion people, each with the energy intensity of the average U.S. citizen in 2011, at what level would the ultimate total annual energy consumption stabilize, in EJlyear? (5 points) From data introduced earlier, it can be seen that the world reached the 37 EJ year mark in 1900 and the 100 EJyear mark in 1950. Using these data points and the logistics formula, calculate the number of years from 2011 until the year in which the world will reach 97% of the value calculated in part (b). (10 points) c)

1) Using the triangle formula, pick appropriate values of the parameters a and b such that the triangle formula has approximately the same shape as the logistics formula.

2) Plot the logistics and triangle functions from parts (c) and (d) on the same axes, with year on the x- axis and total energy consumption on the y-axis.

Answer 1

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