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1. Which of the following is an implication of Bayes Theorem? A. It is irrational to believe in extraordinary claims B. Extraordinar C. Extraordinary claims cannot D. No evidence can be trusted E. We should treat all claims as equally likely, until we see the data at han<d y claims require extraordinary evidence be true 2. According to Slovic et al., which of the following causes of death tend to be overestimated? A. Stomach Cancer B. Lightning C. Tornadoes D. Diabetes E. Stroke 3. Intransitivity can lead to which pathology of group choice? A. Factionalism B. Lack of consensus C. Manipulation by agenda-setting D. Ingroup/outgroup divisions E. Group-think

The following applies to questions 4-6 below. Assume the following notation: P(A) is the probability of event A; p(AB) is the probability of A and B; p(AVB) is the probability of A or B; p(AB) is the probability of A given B; S is the universe of possibilities; -A is the negation of A; and is the null event.

4. p(AB) = x where x is A. p(A) P(B) B. P(AlB)p(B) C. p(BIA) D. p(B) E. p(A V B) 5. For all A in S, p(A) where z is B. V/2 C. 0 D. 0.75 E. 0.5 6. For all A in S, p(A) where r is A. 0.5 B. 1 D. 0 E. 0.25

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Answer #1

1. (B) Bayes Theorem states that extraordinary claims need extraordinary evidence. This determine the conditional probability existing in market.

2. (C) Tornadoes

3. (D) Ingroup/ outgroup division

NoTe :- Question 4-5 belong to Probability. Probability is not subject of economics , hence these cant be answered.

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