Question

iscuss one or more significant events that have occurred since the 2018 midterm elections, and how you think the event(s) might affect the 2020 presidential election

Answer 1

After 2018, Representative Elise Stefanik (R-NY) referred to the results of the mid-term election as a “wake up call.” Motivated by the fact that the vast majority of incoming Republicans were men, Stefanik launched her political action committee, E-PAC, to recruit women and help them win. Republican women leaders like Stefanik are clearly hoping to shift the imbalance in the U.S. House. Looking at the numbers of filed and likely women candidates for the U.S. House as of March 11th, there is an increase in the number of Republican women running between 2018 and 2020; today’s number is already double the number of total Republican women candidates who filed for the U.S. House in 2016. If the likely candidates on our list end up filing, 2020 will represent the year with the highest number of Republican women running for the House in the 30 years that CAWP has been collecting this data. Based on other CAWP analyses from the start of this year’s congressional primary cycle, the partisan gap in women’s candidacies also appears likely to close slightly this year.
Among the most notable results for women:

North Carolina has the potential to increase the representation of women in its congressional delegation. 2 (2D) women are nominees in districts currently represented by men that are favored to flip from Republican to Democratic control, and 1 (1R) woman advanced to a runoff in the solidly Republican district currently represented by Mark Meadows.
Though a large number of races remain too close to call in Texas, the state also has the potential to increase the number of women it sends to Congress. In the 24th congressional district, the race to replace retiring Kenny Marchant will be decided between two women, and 1 (1D) woman is running in an open seat race to replace a retiring congressman in a district that is rated as leaning Democrat.
Arkansas currently has zero women in its congressional delegation. While two Democratic women advanced in uncontested primaries, those districts are rated solidly Republican, meaning Arkansas will almost assuredly continue to have no women in Congress in 2021.
The lone Republican woman in the Alabama congressional delegation, Martha Roby, is retiring this year and the women running for the Republican nomination were defeated in the primary. As a result, Alabama will send no GOP women to Congress in 2021. (Current Democratic congresswoman from Alabama Terri Sewell ran unopposed in the primary and has no Republican opponent in the fall.)
Many races in California remain too close to call, but women are currently 31 of 88 (35.2%) nominees for U.S. House that have already been determined as of March 17th.