Question

As you can see in the following table, demand for heart transplant surgery at Washington General Hospital has increased steadily in the past few years: 

Year	1	2	3	4	5
Heart Transplants	48.0	52.0	53.0	57.0	57.0

The director of medical services predicted 6 years ago that demand in year 1 would be 44.0 surgeries.

a) Using exponential smoothing with a of 0.60 and the given forecast for year 1, the forecasts for years 2 through 6 are (round your responses to one decimal place): 

Year	1	2	3	4	5	6
Forecast	44.0	46.4	49.8	51.7	54.9	56.2

For the forecast made using exponential smoothing with a = 0.60 and the given forecast for year 1, MAD = 4.1 surgeries (round your response to one decimal place). 

Using exponential smoothing with a of 0.90 and the given forecast for year 1, the forecasts for years 2 through 6 are (round your responses to one decimal place): 

Year	1	2	3	4	5	6
Forecast	44.0	47.6	51.6	52.9	56.6	57.0

For the forecast made using exponential smoothing with a = 0.90 and the given forecast for year 1, MAD = 2.9 surgeries (round your response to one decimal place). 

b) Forecasts for years 4 through 6 using a 3-year moving average are (round your responses to one decimal place): 

Year	4	5	6
Forecast	51.0	54.0	55.7

For forecasts made using a 3-year moving average, MAD = 4.5 surgeries (round your response to one decimal place).

c) Forecasts for years 1 through 6 using the trend-projection method are (round your responses to one decimal place): 

Year	1	2	3	4	5	6
Forecast

Answer 1