Question

Favorites Homework #3: Foreca .00 points A 15-5 My App is a small but growing start-up that sees... &Answer is not complete. My App is a small but growing start-up that sees demand for several of its apps increasing quickly. The table below shows the last six months of downloads. Use a forecast for the first month of 220,000, an initial trend forecast of 40,000, and smoothing parameters of 0.25 for both demand smoothing and trend smoothing. Month Monthly Application Downloads Forecast for Next Month Trend 235,000 290,000 336,000 390,000 220,000.00 40,000.00 253,750.00 38,437.50 291.640.60 38,300.78 291,640.60 38,679.44 331,456.1045,606.40 375,101.60 420,016.90 48,759.36 2 5 6 438 0$200100 0 407838 0 498,000 (Round your answer to 2 decimal places.) Complete the table above,filing in the "Forecast for next month" and "Trend" columns, using double exponential smoothing. a. (Round your answer to 2 decimal places.) Month 7's forecast is: 523,614.41 b.

Answer 1

Double exponential smoothin method is used when there is level and trend in the data. It smoothens both level and trend to find the forecast.

The formula used to find forecast from double exponential smoothing is as below

WHere F denotes forecast, L means Level and T means trend alpha and beta are smooting constants which are 0.25 in the given problem. D refers to actual demand.

The problem can be modeled in excel as below

And the answer is as below

a.

b.

Thus month 7 forecast is 5,13,860 downloads