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SectionA Q1. a. Two dice are rolled repeatedly until their scores, Χ, and X, differ by at least two. Find: (i) The probabilities of all possible values of the sum of the scores X, + X2. (i) The marginal probability of all values of X. b. Adice is rolled repeatedly until the total score of all the rolls is at least six. This takes K rolls. Find (i) The probabilities of all possible values of K. (i) The expected value E[K] and variance, E[K2]- E[K]2 (iii) The conditional probabilities of K given the first roll was less than three. c. A model of oil prices is tested on historical data. When the model predicted the price would exceed $100 per barrel, this actually occured with probability 80%. Cor- respondingly if the prediction was the price will stay below $100 per barrel, there was a 40% chance the model is wrong. There is a 20% chance the price of oil will exceed $100 per barrel next year. If the model predicts this will happen, what is the probability it will occur in practice?
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