A stock has produced returns of 4 percent, 10 percent, -5
percent, and 2 percent over the past four years,
respectively. What is the 99 percent probability range of
returns?
|
-16.9 to 23.6 percent |
||
|
-15.8 to 21.3 percent |
||
|
-12.6 to 18.4 percent |
||
| -10.7 to 15.9 percent |
Average return=(4%+10%-5%+2%)/4=2.75%
standard deviation using excel formula=STDEV(4%,10%,-5%,2%)=6.18%
low end of 99 percent probability range of returns=2.75%-3*6.18%=-15.8%
high end of 99 percent probability range of returns=2.75%+3*6.18%=21.3%
answer: -15.8 to 21.3 percent
the above is answer..
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