Question

Respond to each of the items using the following time series data. Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Demand 144 1Period Demand 5-period SMA Absolute Errors 1 144 2 172 3 157 4 160 5 144 6 181 7 160 8 176 9 149 10 183 11 182 12 149 13 153c. Compute the MAD. (Round your answer to 1 decimal place.) MAD d. What is the forecast demand for period 17? (Round your ans

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Answer #1

b)

The moving averages (MA) forecast for the nth period is computed using the following formula: Forecast period n Yn-5 + Yn-4 +

Period Data MA(5) Forecasts 1 144 2 172 3 157 4 160 5 144 6 181 (144 + 172 + 157 +160+ 144)/5 = 155.4 7 160 (172 + 157 + 160

Period Data MA(5) Forecasts Abs. Error 1 144 2 172 3 157 4 160 5 144 181 6 181 155.4 155.4 25.6 7 160 162.8 160 - 162.8) = 2.

11 182 169.8 | 182 169.8 = 12.2 12 149 170 | 149- 170 = 21 13 153 1678 | 153 167.8|| 14.8 14 164 163.2 | 164- 163.2] = 0.8 15

c)

MAD = 18.04

d)

demand for period 17 is

(149 + 153 + 164 + 153 + 1045/5 = 144.6

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