Question

Quarter Revenue ($ millions) 1 54 2 68 3 81 4 112 5 115 6 140 7 168 8 243 9 250 (a) Construct a time series plot. 300 3001 300 250+ 300 250 2007 150 200 150 w 2007 W 1501 100+ 200 150 100 100 sot 100 100 50 30 0 O 2 8 0 0 0 0 B Quarter 4 8 10 8 10 0 4 8 10 B Quarter Quarter Quarter What type of pattern exists in the data? The time series plot shows a horizontal pattern. The time series plot shows a downward trend. . The time series plot shows an upward trend. The time series plot shows a cyclical pattern. (b) Using Excel or Minitab, develop a linear trend equation for this time series to forecast revenue (in millions of dollars). (Round your numerical values to one decimal place.) (c) Using Excel or Minitab, develop a quadratic trend equation for this time series to forecast revenue (in millions of dollars). (Round your numerical values to one decimal place.) Tt- (d) Compare the MSE for each model. (Round your answers to one decimal place.) Linear model MSE - Quadratic model MSE -

Answer 1

к L M N 0 P Q Time Series Plot 300 250 с D E F G H 1 1 Revenue( $ millions) (Y) Y_cap(Linear) (Y-Y_cap) (Y-Y_cap)^2 Y_cap(Quadratic) (Y-Y_cap) (Y-Y_cap)^2 2 54 36.0 18.0 322.4 57.4 -3.4 11.5 3 68 61.2 6.8 45.9 66.6 1.4 2.1 4 81 86.4 -5.4 29.3 80.3 0.7 0.5 5 112 111.6 0.4 0.2 98.6 13.4 178.6 6 115 136.8 -21.8 474.2 121.5 -6.5 42.7 7 140 162.0 -22.0 482.2 149.0 -9.0 81.1 8 168 187.1 - 19.1 366.4 181.0 - 13.0 170.2 9 243 212.3 30.7 941.0 217.7 25.3 641.9 10 250 237.5 12.5 156.1 258.9 -8.9 78.4 11 1231 1231.0 0.0 2817.5 1231.0 0.0 1206.9 12 200 150 100 13 50 14 15 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 16 Quarter 17 18 10

с D E F G H - J K L M N O Р Q 22 23 24 Time Series Plot Time Series Plot 25 300 300 26 27 250 250 y = 2.2868x?+2.3154x + 52.786 28 y = 25.183x + 10.861 200 200 29 . 30 Revenue ($ Millions) 150 Revenue ($ Millions) 150 31 32 100 100 33 34 50 50 35 36 37 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 38 Quarter Quarter 39 40 41

a from the above trine Sedies plot Soy that option (B) in Carreet. whese the time series plot shows an upward trend. (b) The linear trend careation in Excel S у 951183 x + 10.861 ŷ = 25.2x + 10.9 or The quadratic trend equation in Excel is Û = 2.2868x2 +2:3154x +52.786 or û = 2.3x2 + 2-3+52.8 (d) 1 For lineas godel, MSE h (Virgije 11 ģx 2817.5 LX 2817.5 = 313.0555 9 ñ 31301 For Quadratic model, À Ŝ(y-92 ㅗ x 1206.9 175E = at Тэг > 134.1