The following table shows the actual demand observed over the last 4 years:
| Year | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demand | 8 | 8 | 4 | 10 |
Using exponential smoothing with a = 0.40 and a forecast for year 1 of 7.0, provide the forecast from periods 2 through 5 (round your responses to one decimal place)
| Year | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecast (ES) | 7.0 |
Provide the forecast from periods 2 through 5 using the naive approach (enter your responses as whole numbers)
| Year | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecast (NA) |
Homework Answers
Using the exponential smoothing method
F(2) = 0.4*Actual(1) + (1-0.4)*F(1)
= 0.4*8 + 0.6*7
= 7.4
F(3) = 0.4*8 + 0.6*7.4
= 7.6
F(4) = 0.4*4 + 0.6*7.6
= 6.2
F(5) = 0.4*10 + 0.6*6.2
= 7.7
Using the naive forecasting method
F(2) = Actual(1)
= 8
F(3) = Actual(2)
= 8
F(4) = 4
F(5) = 10
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