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11.The Whistle Stop Cafe in Weems, Georgia, is well known for its popular homemade ice cream, made in a small plant in back of the cafe People drive all the way from Atlanta and Macon to buy the ice cream. The two women who own the cafe want to develop a forecasting model so they can plan their ice cream production operation and determine the number of employees they need to sell ice cream in the cafe. They have accumulated the following sales records for their ice cream for the past 12 quarters Quarter Ice Cream Sales (gal.) 350 510 750 420 370 480 860 500 450 550 820 570 Year 2003 2 4 2004 6 7 2005 10 12 Develop an adjusted exponential smoothing model with a = .50 and b = .50 to forecast demand and assess its accuracy using cumulative error (E ) and average error (E. Does there appear to be any bias in the forecast?12.For the demand data in Problem 11, develop a seasonally adjusted forecast for 2004. (Use a linear trend line model to develop a forecast estimate for 2006.) Which forecast model do you perceive to be more accurate: the exponential smoothing model from Problem 11 or the seasonally adjusted forecast?

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Holts Model Alpha (al) Beta (be) Year Quarter Demand 0.500 0.500 Error FIT() 350.00 350.00 470.00 720.00 605.00 463.75 452.19 738.36 641.86 520.64 517.37 726.39 Cumulative Erro 350 510 750 420 370 480 860 500 450 550 820 570 Frit) 350.00 350.00 430.00 610.00 570.00 487.50 471.88 656.09 619.18 545.93 535.32 668.69 0.00 0.00 40.00 110.00 35.00 23.75 19.69 82.27 22.68 25.29 17.95 57.71 0.00 160.00 280.00 300.00 235.00 16.25 407.81 238.36 191.86 29.36 302.63 156.39 0.00 160.00 440.00 740.00 975.00 991.25 1399.06 1637.42 1829.28 1858.64 2161.27 2317.66 2003 Formula for Trend adjusted exponential smoothening 2004 2005

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