Question

Problem 1 The table below presents data for tire sales in the Costco Branch at South Dakota Avenue, Washington D.C. from the months of January through December of the Year 2019. 5983 Automobile Month Year Tire Sales January 5610 2019 February 5790 2019 March 2019 2019 April 6202 6460 2019 May 6608 2019 June July 2019 August 2019 9110 September 2019 8690 October 2019 8799 November 2019 8896 December 2019 9210 a. Compute a two-month moving average. What is the forecast for January 2020? b. Compute a three-month moving average. What is the forecast for January 2020? 6900 C. Compute a weighted 2-month moving average with weights of 0.4 and 0.6 to forecast sales for January 2020. (The weight of 0.6 is for the most recent month). d. Calculate the MAD for the 3 models. Based on the MAD, which of the 3 models gives a better forecast. e. Compute the MSE for the 3 models. Based on the MSE, which of the 3 models gives a better forecast?

Answer 1

Page ② compute forcast a two-month moving average what is the for Janury 2020? Automobile Tire Sales 5610 12-moorthmoving Avera 5790 5983 6202 2019 | Month q eer January 2019 February 2018 Merch 2018 April 2018 may Sun 2019 2019. August 2019 september | 2019 October 2018 November 2019 December 2014 January 2020 July 6460 6608. 690 gro 8690 8799 8896 5700 5886.5 6092.5 6331 6534 6754 8oos 890o 8744.5 8847.5 gosa 9210 Theme for cast for Jancury 2020 for two-month year moving Average is gos3 calculation for 2-month moving average mi: 5610+5790 12 = 5700 m2=57.90759.8312=5886.5 mzi 59.83 +620212 = 6092.5 mua 62.02 + 6460/2 =6330 mg = 64 60+ 6608 /2 = 6534 mon66087 690012 =6754 m2 = 6900+ 9.10 12 = 8oos meghot 8690_12 2900 - 8690+8799/2 = 8926.5 mador 87 99 +8896/2 = 8847.5 mil2 889 679210/2 = 9053 in

page 2 Compute a ocast for are a for three month moving average what is January 20207 the fo. Jan month Year 3-mon age January Automobile Tie Soes o 5610 pebruary 5790 march 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 Apes 5983 6202 may 6460 5794.33 5991.667 6215 2019 2019 Jun July August semptember 6423.3333 2019 6656 6608 690o glio 8690 8799 8896 2019 2539.333 octobor November 2019 2019 2019 2020 December January 8233.333 8866 333 8795 8968.333 9210 for three months The forcast for moving Average Janury 2020 is 8968.333 50 13 62123.3333 Calculation for 3 monts moving average m, 5610+5790+5983/3 =5794.33 my: 5790 +59894 620213 - 5991.667 m3= 5983 +6202 + 6460 13 = 6215. ms=6202 + 6460+ 6608 13 = 6423.3333 ms=6460+ 6608+ 690013 - 6656. me = 6608 + 6900 +911013 - 7539.33. my 6900tgllot 80 90/3 = 8233.33 mga 9110 + 8690+879913 8866.33 ma-8690+8799+8896/3 = 8795 on=8799+8896+9210/3 = 8968.333

Page 5 January compute a weighted 2-month moving average pou weights of 0.4 and 0.6 to forecast sales for January 2010 ( The weight of 0. 6 s for the me recent month) and for weighted moreing Avenge is loco.us+s79010 nonts Year B Redmohile Tirerases 2. vegnte moving 019 5510 rebruary 2019 578 5790 march 2019 sgosia 5983 Αρτή). 2019 6202 6114.4 may 6356.8 2019 6460 65488 June 6608 2019 690% 6783.2 2019 July August 8226 2019 69 010 8858 september 2019 gogo 8755.4 8499 2019 8896 8857.2 Nevember 2019 9210 9084.4 becember 2019 January 2020 october

MAD for model 1 526.5 MAD for model 2= 706.7407 MAD for model - 3= 473.45