Question

This data will be used for Questions 8-14. The number of flowers sold at The Blossom Shop on Fridays is shown in the table below. Round off all calculations to two decimal places. Maintaining two decimal places is required for all calculations Week Demand Week Demand Week Demand 161 1 155 6 11 168 2 162 7 148 12 167 3 164 153 13 165 4 165 160 14 160 158 10 164 15 155 LO

Answer 1

The foron ela for forecast value using enponential smoothing - - I given by Etti = Ft + 2 (At - Ft) Ftel = 2 At + (1-2) Ft where e Fit represents forecast value at time tti - Ft represents forecast value at time to L represents . smoothing - Constant, a ondsi At represents actual valuecie actual demand value) To compute Etti etc, coe construct the following table Cin the rent page) Note! As per HomeworkLib rules, only 4 subparts gg rules, are HIMANSHI TATIONEET

Forecast for week 16 e 6 Fi = 62 (assume), 2=0.2 Week At It, d = 0.2 161 F = 62 (Assumed) 162 F2 = 0.2XA, +(1-012) Fi = 0.2 x 16 7 +0.8 x 62 =81.8 F3 = 0.2X A2 +0.8881.8 T = 0.28 162 +0.8*81.8=97.84 164 7165 1158 Remaining part Tattached in the enced 155 7 148 8 153 160 11 168 1167 1675 14 160 151155 16 - FI6=157. 1245 > 156.00 but less than or equal ieAnsworo HIMANSHI

Note! is Generall done in no first forecast week - sofi it is assumed But here that FV-62 Mean seccare Siace no done in so there error. For Week2 Ez = Error! forecast is first week will be no Error is Az - F2 = 162-81.8 = 80.2 Error square E - = 6432.04 Similarly we find coror sluare for all the weeks from week 2 to week is which is attache in te encel sheet. Fromencel sheet we get Error slecare 2 = 0.2 of week 15 = 7052178 17.05 less than or eluol to zo.. Since we clond have 74 weeks encept week so, Mean slecare errora 6432.out . +7.052178 HIMANSHI - 1261.024.

a=0.8 "To find the forecast volue] we apply the same procedure jest changing ging the the value or FL and L . For this we make another teble which is attached in re encel sheet From table 2. attached in encel sheet, we get Fic= 161.0798 71161.087 which is reater than 159.00 biet less than a coual to 162.oo. 84 error wite Mean secare 2= 0.8. From table 3 we get Error seuare of week 15 - 36.96431 ~ 36.96 which is greater than 32.. Mean seccare error= Eztart Els = 23.66998 - 23.67 HIMANSHI

led 20. le Home Bookl Microsoft Excel Product Activate Data Review View Insert Page Layout Formulas General 9 % 3893 conditional Format Formatting Table Styles este pboard s! A week Number H week I At 1 161 - 11 A N = = = - BIU 3 A - E Font Alignment B .. LoL IG At It Error ERROR SQUARE 161 62 - 2 162 81.8 80.2 6432.04 164 97.84 66.16 4377.146 165 111.072 53.928 2908.229 158 121.8576 36.1424 1306,273 155 129.0861 25.91392 671.5312 148 134.2689 13.73114 188.5441 153 137.0151 15.96491 255.5173 160 140.2121 19.78793 391.5621 164 141.1697 19.33034 393 2424 168 148.1357 19.66427 391.5894 167 152.1086 14.84112 221.1513 105 155.089 9.912125 98.27024 160 157.0695 2.93050B 3.58/77 15 155 157.6556 -2.65559 7.1652178 157 1245 - 17651,34 1251.024 KW Ft Error ERROR SQUAI 161161 - 162 1 164 161.8 2.2 4.54 165 263.56 1.44 2.0736 158 164.712 6.712 45.05094 155 159.3424 4.3424 18.85644 148 156.8685 7.86848 61.91298 153 149.5737 3.026304 11.73956 160 252.2147 7.685261 59.06323 161 158.4629 5.537052 30.65895 108 162.8926 5.10741 26.08564 167 106.9785 0.02132 0.000161 165 166.9957 -1.9957 3.982823 160 165.1991 3.39914 29.15072 155 161.0799 -6.07989 36.96431 156 216 331.317 23.66998 16 - Sheet1 Sheet? Sheer rabi QWER TYY! U 1 0 P ps AS DO F1 G H I J | 7 x C VÀ By N M = 2 =