Question

Consider the following time series data. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 18 13 17 12 17 14 a. Which of the following is a correct time series plot for this data? TimeSeries Value 15 10 34Week TimeSeries Value 15 10 2 3 45Week TimeSeries Value 10

Answer 1

I am solving in Excel and pasting the images of solution

lu 837274 1 123456

a.)

Correct Plot is 1

6 5 4 3 2 1 086420 0864 2111 anleA 2

b.) 3 week Moving average

Week1 Value MA(3) Error2 18 13 17 12 17 14 16 14.00 15.33 14.33 16 9 1.78 4 6 7 MSE 8.926

MSE = 8.926

Week 7 Forecast = 14.33

c.) Exponential Smoothening, alpha = 0.2

Week 1 Value Exponential Smoothening ErrorA2 18 13 17 12 17 14 18 14 16.4 12.88 16.18 14.44 25 9 19.36 16.97 4.73 alpha 0.2 2 4 5 6 7 MSE 15.01

Forecast for week 7 = 14.44

MSE = 15.01

Note: Results of exponential smoothening may differ. Reason is there are 2 ways to solve exponential smoothening

I have solved using Microsoft Excel. Please let me know if it works for you

d.)

Moving Average provides more accurate results since MSE of 3 week moving average is lower as compared to Exponential smoothening.

Note:

Remaining answers are correct