Question

	DEMAND
April	71
May	66
June	91
July	71
August	96
September	91

1. Using single exponential smoothing with α = 0.20 and a September forecast = 49, calculate a forecast for October.

2.Using simple linear regression, calculate the trend line for the historical data. Say the X axis is April = 1, May = 2, and so on, while the Y axis is demand. (Round your intercept value to the nearest whole number and slope value to 2 decimal places.)

3.Calculate a forecast for October using your regression formula

PLEASE **STAR** YOUR FINAL ANSWER, THANK YOU

Answer 1

Answer 1=

Exponential smoothing forecasting = F_t = F_t-1 +α(A_t-1-F_t-1)

In the question, F_t-1 =49 A_t-1=91, α=0.2

Exponential smoothing forecasting for September = F_t = F_t-1 +α(A_t-1-F_t-1) =49+0.2*(91-49)=57.4

****Answer=57.4****

Answer 2=

	x	y	xy	x^2	y^2
	1	71	71	1	5041
	2	66	132	4	4356
	3	91	273	9	8281
	4	71	284	16	5041
	5	96	480	25	9216
	6	91	546	36	8281
Sum	21	486	1786	91	40216
	Σν) Σr) - Σx ) Σxy) (Σχ2)-Σx > n (Σxν) - Σx ) (Σν ) η22)-Σx )> α
	b= 85/(17.5*1450)^0.5)
	b=0.5336
	a=(1450/5)^0.5
	b= (6*1789-21*486)/(6*91-21*21)
	b=5.03
	a= (486*91-21*1786)/(6*91-21*21)
	a=64
	Regression line y=64+5.03x

So the answer is

****y=64+5.03x*****

Answer 3= Forcast for October,

put x=7 in y=64+5.03x

y=64+5.03*7

y=99.21

Answer= ***99.21**