Question

12. Supersonics Records plans to market a new record for a comeback artist nationwide. Management believes that there is a 70% chance that the new record will be a hit and, therefore, a 30% chance that the new record will be a miss. However, before resources are committed to market this new record nationwide, management will ask Mr. Deejay, a well-known authority in the music scene, to predict whether the new record will be a hit or a miss. Mr. Deejay's past predictions were quite impressive-che correctly predicted a hit record 80% of the time and incorrectly predicted a hit record only 10% of the time. Let H = The new record is actually a hit M = The new record is actually a miss DH = Mr. Deejay predicts the new record will be a hit Therefore, P(H) = 0.70 P(M) = 0.30 P(DH/H) = 0.80 P(DH/M) = 0.10 Based on these information, what is P(H and DH)? (That is, what is the probability that the new record is actually a hit (H) AND Mr. Deejay predicts the new record will be a hit (DH)?) A. 0.56 B. 0.59 C. 0.95 D. Not enough information given to answer this question E. None of the above me dos colomb absol sodeloba p o

Answer 1

ANSWER:

GIVEN

P(H) = 0.70

P(M) = 0.30

P(D/H) = 0.80

P(DH/M) = 0.10

we know that Bayes formula,

P(DH/H) = P(H and DH) / P(H)

then P(H and DH) = P(DH/H) * P(H)

= 0.80*0.70

=0.56

option A is correct