Professor Very Busy needs to allocate time next week to include time for office hours. He needs to forecast the number of students who will seek appointments. He has gathered the following data:
| Week | #Students |
| 6 Weeks ago | 83 |
| 5 Weeks ago | 110 |
| 4 Weeks ago | 95 |
| 3 Weeks ago | 80 |
| 2 Weeks ago | 65 |
| Last Week | 50 |
What is this week's forecast using exponential smoothing with alpha = .2, if the forecast for two weeks ago was 90?
Using the simple exponential smoothing method
F(Last week) = 0.2*Actual(Two weeks ago) + (1-0.2)*F(Two weeks ago)
= 0.2*65 + 0.8*90
= 13 + 72
= 85
F(This week) = 0.2*50 + 0.8*85
= 78
Professor Very Busy needs to allocate time next week to include time for office hours. He...