Question

Data on demand over the last few years are available as follows:

Time Period	Demand
7 years ago	7
6 years ago	28
5years ago	21
4 years ago	42
3 years ago	35
2 years ago	56
Last year	49

a. What is this year's forecast using trend-adjusted (double) smoothing with alpha=.2 and beta=.1, if the forecast for the last year was 56, the forecast for two years ago was 46, and the trend estimate for last year's forecast was 7?

 

b. What are this and next year's forecasts using the least squares trend line for these data?

 

c. What is this year's forecast using exponential smoothing with alpha=.25, if last year's smoothed forecast was 45?

 

d. What is this year's forecast using a four-year simple moving average?

 

e. This year's forecast using the naive approach

Answer 1