Question

The actual values for 12 periods (shown in order) are:

Period	Data
1	45
2	52
3	48
4	59
5	55
6	55
7	64
8	58
9	73
10	66
11	69
12	74

In Excel, create forecasts for periods 6-13 using each of the following methods:

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-5 period simple moving average;

Using a 5 period simple moving average, the forecast for period 13 will be: 68

-4 period weighted moving average (0.63, 0.26, 0.08, 0.03);

Using the 4 period weighted moving average, the forecast for period 13 will be: 70.89

-Exponential smoothing (alpha = 0.23 and the forecast for period 5 = 53);

With exponential smoothing, the forecast for period 13 will be: 65.80

-Linear regression with the equation based on all 12 periods;

With linear regression, the forecast for period 13 will be: 75.42

Quadratic regression with the equation based on all 12 periods;

With quadratic regression, the forecast for period 13 will be: 75.41

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***THIS IS THE PART I NEED HELP WITH:***

Considering only the forecasts for period 6-12, what is the lowest MAD value for any of the methods?

???

Any help would be greatly appreciated! Thank you so much in advance :)

Answer 1

oeCasts Pesiodl oecast bower UPer 13 67.8 5R.59s 8o8S Single Exponential Stmcotning for a Melhad Data Value Lergh 12 13 i 13, 5954- O, FO7074 Accuracy easuves MAPE MA D MS D 7.5614 4.GI20 31.05R robecastS 13 73. 54G. 24.8946

Method Quadtatic Teend Model alue 12 Madel tpe Wmissing Fitted Thed Equator:- MAPE A.48443 Q.STASA . 824 Quadtodic egbessicn MAD MSD heost or Fosecasts 13 1o 16 12 16. 84 09