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You travel from JFK to Nanjing (China) with change of airplanes in Paris and Beijing. You...

You travel from JFK to Nanjing (China) with change of airplanes in Paris and Beijing. You have one piece of luggage. At each stop your luggage is transferred from one airplane to another. At the airport in JFK there is a probability of 5% that your luggage is not placed in the right plane. This probability is 3% at the airport in Paris and 2% at the airport in Beijing.

1. What is the probability that your luggage does not reach Nanjing with you?

2. If your luggage does not reach Nanjing with you, what is the probability that it was lost at the airport of Paris?

math   Statistics-And-Probability   
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Answer #1

Here p(luggage is not placed in the right plane =

= 0.05

2: P( Paris | does not reach nanhi good with you) = 0.03/0.05

= 0.6

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