Question

Write a report on Inflation as a part of Macroeconomics in 3000 words. Use diagrams wherever required.

Please start with
A) Introduction [What, Why, How]
B) Body of report [Include Subtopics]
C) Concluding remarks

Answer 1

a.Introduction- Inflation is a sustained increase in the general price level of goods and services in an economy over a period of time. When the general price level rises, each unit of currency buys fewer goods and services; consequently, inflation reflects a reduction in the purchasing power per unit of money – a loss of real value in the medium of exchange and unit of account within the economy. The measure of inflation is the inflation rate, the annualized percentage change in a general price index, usually the consumer price index, over time The opposite of inflation is deflation.

Inflation affects economies in various positive and negative ways. The negative effects of inflation include an increase in the opportunity cost of holding money, uncertainty over future inflation which may discourage investment and savings, and if inflation were rapid enough, shortages of goods as consumers begin hoarding out of concern that prices will increase in the future. Positive effects include reducing unemployment due to nominal wage rigidity allowing the central bank more leeway in carrying out monetary policy, encouraging loans and investment instead of money hoarding, and avoiding the inefficiencies associated with deflation.

b. Body of report- Inflation is a key concept in macroeconomics, and a major concern for government policymakers, companies, workers and investors. Inflation refers to a broad increase in prices across many goods and services in an economy over a sustained period of time. Conversely, inflation can also be thought of as the erosion in value of an economy's currency (a unit of currency buys fewer goods and services than in prior periods).

In the United States, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is among the most commonly-used measures of inflation. The CPI uses a so-called "market basket" of goods to measure the changes in prices experienced by average consumers in the economy. Economists and central bankers will often subdivide the CPI into so-called "core inflation," a measure that excludes the price of food and energy.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) is a measure of inflation that tracks the prices that producers obtain for their goods. Though a long-followed economic statistic, the change in composition of some economies away from manufacturing and towards services is eroding the value of this statistic.

The GDP deflator is another option for measuring prices and inflation. As the name suggests, the GDP deflator is a price measurement tool that is used to convert nominal GDP to real GDP. The GDP deflator is a broader measure than the CPI, as it includes goods and services bought by businesses and governments.

While there is little consensus on the "right" rate of inflation for an economy (or even if inflation is necessary at all), there is little disagreement in the differing impacts of expected and unexpected inflation. When inflation is expected, agents in the economy can plan for it and act accordingly – businesses raise prices, workers demand higher wages, lenders raise interest rates and so on.

Unexpected inflation is considerably more problematic. When inflation is higher than expected, it tends to hurt workers, recipients of fixed incomes, and savers. In contrast, unexpected inflation often benefits companies (who can raise prices quickly without needing to raise wages in tandem) and borrowers (who can repay their debts with money that is now worth less than when they borrowed it).

Over the long term, unanticipated inflation can cause a number of problems for an economy. Businesses will invest less in long-term projects because of the uncertainty of returns, price information becomes distorted, and consumers will spend more time trying to protect themselves from inflation and less time engaging in productive activities. Periods of inflation also tend to redirect investment from businesses and toward hard assets, thus depriving companies of the capital they need to grow and expand

What causes inflation is also a key argument in economic theory. Some economists believe that there are different types of inflation – cost-push and demand-pull inflation. Cost-push inflation is supposed to be a type of inflation caused by rising prices in goods or services with no suitable alternatives. An oft-cited example of this inflation is the oil crisis of the 1970s. Cost-push inflation is largely a Keynesian argument, as monetarists do not believe that increased prices for goods and services lead to inflation absent an increase in the money supply.

Demand-pull inflation is a rise in the price of goods and services created by aggregate demand in excess of aggregate supply, sometimes referred to as "too much money chasing too few goods." As with cost-push inflation, monetarists argue against the existence of demand-pull inflation absent changes in the money supply

Commonly used measures of inflation

Examples of common measures of inflation include:

• Consumer price indices (CPIs) which measure the price of a selection of goods purchased by a "typical consumer".

• Cost-of-living indices (COLI) which often adjust fixed incomes and contractual incomes based on measures of goods and services price changes

• List index summary analysis (LISA) which measures the change in volume of peoples' voices.

• producer price indices (PPIs) which measure the price received by a producer. This differs from the CPI in that price subsidization, profits, and taxes may cause the amount received by the producer to differ from what the consumer paid. There is also typically a delay between an increase in the PPI and any resulting increase in the CPI. Producer price inflation measures the pressure being put on producers by the costs of their raw materials. This could be "passed on" as consumer inflation, or it could be absorbed by profits, or offset by increasing productivity.

• wholesale price indices, which measure the change in price of a selection of goods at wholesale, prior to retail mark ups and sales taxes. These are very similar to the Producer Price Indexes.

• commodity price indices, which measure the change in price of a selection of commodities. In the present commodity price indexes are weighted by the relative importance of the components to the "all in" cost of an employee.

• GDP Deflators measures price increases in all assets rather than some particular subset. The term "deflator" in this case means the percentage to reduce current prices to get the equivalent price in a previous period. The US Commerce Department publishes a deflator series for the US economy.

au of Labor Statistics breaks down CPI-U calculations down to different regions of the US.

• Historical Inflation Before collecting consistent econometric data became standard for governments, and for the purpose of comparing absolute, rather than relative standards of living, various economists have calculated imputed inflation figures. Most inflation data before the early 20th century is imputed based on the known costs of goods, rather than compiled at the time. It is also used to adjust for the differences in real standard of living for the presence of technology. This is equivalent to not adjusting the composition of baskets over time.

The role of inflation in the economy

In the long run, inflation is generally believed to be a monetary phenomenon, while in the short and medium term, it is influenced by the relative elasticity of wages, prices and interest rates. The question of whether the short-term effects last long enough to be important is the central topic of debate between monetarist and Keynesian schools. In monetarism, prices and wages adjust quickly enough to make other factors merely marginal behavior on a general trendline. In the Keynesian view, prices and wages adjust at different rates, and these differences have enough effects on real output to be "long term" in the view of people in an economy.

A great deal of economic literature concerns the question of what causes inflation and what effect it has. A small amount of inflation is often viewed as having a positive effect on the economy. One reason for this is that it is difficult to renegotiate some prices, and particularly wages, downwards, so that with generally increasing prices it is easier for relative prices to adjust. Many prices are "sticky downward" and tend to creep upward, so that efforts to attain a zero inflation rate (a constant price level) punish other sectors with falling prices, profits, and employment. Efforts to attain complete price stability can also lead to deflation, which is generally viewed as a negative outcome because of the significant downward adjustments in wages and output that are associated with it.

Inflation is also viewed as a hidden risk pressure that provides an incentive for those with savings to invest them, rather than have the purchasing power of those savings erode through inflation. In investing inflation risks often cause investors to take on more systematic risk, in order to gain returns that will stay ahead of expected inflation. Inflation is also used as an index for cost of living adjustments and as a peg for some bonds. In effect, inflation is the rate at which previous economic transactions are discounted economically.

Inflation also gives central banks room to maneuver, since their primary tool for controlling the money supply and velocity of money is by setting the lowest interest rate in an economy - the discount rate at which banks can borrow from the central bank. Since borrowing at negative interest is generally ineffective, a positive inflation rate gives central bankers "ammunition", as it is sometimes called, to stimulate the economy.

However, in general, inflation rates above the nominal amounts required to give monetary freedom, and investing incentive, are regarded as negative, particularly because in current economic theory, inflation begets further inflationary expectations.

• Increasing uncertainty may discourage investment and saving.
• Redistribution
  • It will redistribute income from those on fixed incomes, such as pensioners, and shifts it to those who draw a variable income, for example from wages and profits which may keep pace with inflation.
  • Similarly it will redistribute wealth from those who lend a fixed amount of money to those who borrow. For example, where the government is a net debtor, as is usually the case, it will reduce this debt redistributing money towards the government. Thus inflation is sometimes viewed as similar to a hidden tax.
• International trade: If the rate of inflation is higher than that abroad, a fixed exchange rate will be undermined through a weakening balance of trade.
• Shoe leather costs: Because the value of cash is eroded by inflation, people will tend to hold less cash during times of inflation. This imposes real costs, for example in more frequent trips to the bank. (The term is a humorous reference to the cost of replacing shoe leather worn out when walking to the bank.)
• Menu costs: Firms must change their prices more frequently, which imposes costs, for example with restaurants having to reprint menus.
• Relative Price Distortions: Firms do not generally synchronize adjustment in prices. If there is higher inflation, firms that do not adjust their prices will have much lower prices relative to firms that do adjust them. This will distort economic decisions, since relative prices will not be reflecting relative scarcity of different goods.
• Hyperinflation: if inflation gets totally out of control (in the upward direction), it can grossly interfere with the normal workings of the economy, hurting its ability to supply.
• Inflation tax when a government can improve its net financial position by allowing inflation, then this represents a tax on certain holders of currency. Governments may decide to use this "stealth tax" in order to avoid hard fiscal decisions to cut expenditures, raise taxes, or confront government unions with greater efficiency.
• Bracket Creep is related to the inflation tax. By allowing inflation to move upwards, certain sticky aspects of the tax code are met by more and more people. Commonly income tax brackets, where the next dollar of income is taxed at a higher rate than previous dollars. Governments that allow inflation to "bump" people over these thresholds are, in effect, allowing a tax increase because the same real purchasing power is being taxed at a higher rate.

As noted, some economists see moderate inflation as a benefit; some business executives see mild inflation as "greasing the wheels of commerce." A very few economists have advocated reducing inflation to zero as a monetary policy goal - particularly in the late 1990s at the end of a long disinflationary period, when the policy seemed within reach.

Causes of inflation

There are different schools of thought as to what causes inflation. Most can be divided into two broad areas: quality theories of inflation, and quantity theories of inflation. Many theories of inflation combine the two. The quality theory of inflation rests on the expectation of a buyer accepting currency to be able to exchange that currency at a later time for goods that are desirable as a buyer. The quantity theory of inflation rests on the equation of the money supply, its velocity, and exchanges. Adam Smith and David Hume proposed a quantity theory of inflation for money, and a quality theory of inflation for production.

Keynesian economic theory proposes that money is transparent to real forces in the economy, and that visible inflation is the result of pressures in the economy expressing themselves in prices.

There are three major types of inflation, as part of what Robert J. Gordon calls the "triangle model":

• Demand pull inflation: inflation from high demand for goods and low unemployment.
• Cost push inflation: presently termed "supply shock inflation," from an event such as a sudden decrease in the supply of oil, which would increase oil prices. Producers for whom oil is a part of their costs could then pass this on to consumers in the form of increased prices.
• Built-in inflation: induced by adaptive expectations, often linked to the "price/wage spiral" because it involves workers trying to keep their wages up with prices and then employers passing higher costs on to consumers as higher prices as part of a "vicious circle." Built-in inflation reflects events in the past, and so might be seen as hangover inflation.

A major demand-pull theory centers on the supply of money: inflation may be caused by an increase in the quantity of money in circulation relative to the ability of the economy to supply (its potential output). This has been seen most graphically when governments have financed spending in a crisis by printing money excessively (from war or civil war conditions), often leading to hyperinflation where prices rise at extremely high rates (such as, doubling every month). Another cause can be a rapid decline in the demand for money as happened in Europe during the black plague.

The money supply is also thought to play a major role in determining levels of more moderate levels of inflation, although there are differences of opinion on how important it is. For example, Monetarist economists believe that the link is very strong; Keynesian economics by contrast typically emphasize the role of aggregate demand in the economy rather than the money supply in determining inflation. That is, for Keynesians, the money supply is only one determinant of aggregate demand.

A fundamental concept in such Keynesian analysis is the relationship between inflation and unemployment, called the Phillips curve. This model suggested that price stability was a trade off against employment. Therefore some level of inflation could be considered desirable in order to minimize unemployment. The Philips curve model described the U.S. experience well in the 1960s but failed to describe the combination of rising inflation and economic stagnation (sometimes referred to as stagflation) experienced in the 1970s.

Thus, modern macroeconomics describes inflation using a Phillips curve that shifts (so the trade-off between inflation and unemployment changes) because of such matters as supply shocks and inflation becoming built into the normal workings of the economy. The former refers to such events as the oil shocks of the 1970s, while the latter refers to the price/wage spiral and inflationary expectations implying that the economy "normally" suffers from inflation. Thus, the Phillips curve represents only the demand-pull component of the triangle model.

Another Keynesian concept is the potential output (sometimes called the "natural gross domestic product"), a level of GDP where the economy is at its optimal level of production, given institutional and natural constraints. (This level of output corresponds to the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment, NAIRU, or the "natural" rate of unemployment or the full-employment unemployment rate.) If GDP exceeds its potential (and unemployment is below the NAIRU), the theory says that inflation will accelerate as suppliers increase their prices and built-in inflation worsens. If GDP falls below its potential level (and unemployment is above the NAIRU), inflation will decelerate as suppliers attempt to fill excess capacity, cutting prices and undermining built-in inflation.

However, one problem with this theory for policy-making purposes is that the exact level of potential output (and of the NAIRU) is generally unknown and tends to change over time. Inflation also seems to act in an asymmetric way, rising more quickly than it falls. Worse, it can change because of policy: for example, high unemployment under Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher in the UK may have led to a rise in the NAIRU (and a fall in potential) because many of the unemployed found themselves as structurally unemployed (also see unemployment), unable to find jobs that fit their skills in the British economy. A rise in structural unemployment implies that a smaller percentage of the labor force can find jobs at the NAIRU, where the economy avoids crossing the threshold into the realm of accelerating inflation.

c. Concluding Remarks/Summary- A general price increase across the entire economy is called inflation. When prices decrease, there is deflation. Economists measure these changes in prices with price indexes. Inflation can occur when an economy becomes overheated and grows too quickly. Similarly, a declining economy can lead to deflation.

Central bankers, who manage a country's money supply, try to avoid changes in price level by using monetary policy. Raising interest rates or reducing the supply of money in an economy will reduce inflation. Inflation can lead to increased uncertainty and other negative consequences. Deflation can lower economic output. Central bankers try to stabilize prices to protect economies from the negative consequences of price changes.

Changes in price level may be the result of several factors. The quantity theory of money holds that changes in price level are directly related to changes in the money supply. Most economists believe that this relationship explains long-run changes in the price level. Short-run fluctuations may also be related to monetary factors, but changes in aggregate demand and aggregate supply can also influence price level. For example, a decrease in demand due to a recession can lead to lower price levels and deflation. A negative supply shock, such as an oil crisis, lowers aggregate supply and can cause inflation.