Question

A commercial bakery has recorded sales (in dozens) for three products, as shown below:

Day	Blueberry Muffins	Cinnamon Buns	Cupcakes
1	52	16	68
2	52	15	32
3	52	17	36
4	52	17	71
5	56	20	44
6	52	21	39
7	54	25	38
8	58	22	71
9	49	26	38
10	53	28	36
11	59	29	33
12	53	29	70
13	58	30	39
14	51	32	36
15	52	34	33

a. Predict orders for the following day for each of the products using an appropriate naive method.

Blueberry Muffin	: The (select one) 1)basic naive, 2)seasonal-adjusted naive, 3)trend-adjusted naive  forecast is _______
Cinnamon Buns	: The (select one) 1)trend-adjusted naive 2)seasonal-adjusted naive 3)basic naive  forecast is _________
Cupcakes	: The (select one) 1)trend-adjusted naive 2)seasonal-adjusted naive 3) basic naive forecast is ________

b. What should the use of sales data instead of demand imply?

The use of sales data instead of demand implies that  (select one) 1)sales 2) demand  adequately reflect  (Select one) 1)sales 2)demand  . We are assuming that no stock-outs occurred because demand equals sales if there are no shortages.

Answer 1

a.

Blueberry Muffin = Basic naive and the forecast is 52 as the demand is stable

Cinnamon Buns = Trend adjusted Naive and the forecast is 34+2 = 36 (As we can see for last 2 periods demand has increased by 2)

Cupcakes = Seasonal adjusted Naive and the forecast is 70 (Demand peaks up every 4th day and next [pick would be at 16th day)

b.

The use of sales data instead of demand implies that sales adequately reflect demand . We are assuming that no stock-outs occurred because demand equals sales if there are no shortages.