Question

An experiment consists of choosing an urn with the following probabilities that Urn 1, Urn 2, or Urn 3 will be chosen: 1/2, 1/4, and 1/4, respectively. Urn 1 contains 5 brown marbles and 11 clear marbles. Urn 2 contains 15 brown marbles, 7 clear marbles and 12 red marbles. Urn 3 contains 10 brown marbles, 13 clear marbles and 9 red marbles.

A marble is then chosen from the chosen urn. What is the probability that Urn 3 was chosen, given that the marble chosen was clear?

a) 0.2044

b) 0.1016

c) 0.3126

d) 0.4063

e) 0.1354

f) None of the above.

Answer 1