Passenger miles flown on Northeast Airlines, a commuter firm serving the Boston hub, are shown for the past 12 weeks:
|
Week |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
|
Actual Passenger Miles (in thousands) |
1515 |
1919 |
1717 |
2121 |
2020 |
1818 |
2222 |
2020 |
2424 |
2222 |
1212 |
2121 |
a) Assuming an initial forecast for week 1 of
15,000
miles, use exponential smoothing to compute miles for weeks 2 through 12. Use
alphaαequals=0.250.25
(round your responses to two decimal places).
|
Week |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
|
Forecasted Passenger Miles (in thousands) |
15.0015.00 |
15.0015.00 |
16.0016.00 |
16.2516.25 |
17.4417.44 |
18.0818.08 |
18.0618.06 |
19.0519.05 |
19.2919.29 |
20.4720.47 |
?? |
?? |
a) Using the exponential smoothing method
F(2) = 0.25*Actual(1) + (1-0.25)*F(1)
= 0.25*15 + 0.75*15
= 15
F(3) = 0.25*19 + 0.75*15
= 16
F(4) = 0.25*17 + 0.75*16
= 16.25
F(5) = 0.25*21 + 0.75*16.25
= 17.44
F(6) = 0.25*20 + 0.75*17.44
= 18.08
F(7) = 0.25*18 + 0.75*18.08
= 18.06
F(8) = 0.25*22 + 0.75*18.06
= 19.05
F(9) = 0.25*20 + 0.75*19.05
= 19.29
F(10) = 0.25*24 + 0.75*19.29
= 20.47
F(11) = 0.25*22 + 0.75*20.47
= 20.85
F(12) = 0.25*12 + 0.75*20.85
= 18.64
Passenger miles flown on Northeast Airlines, a commuter firm serving the Boston hub, are shown for...
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