Question

The 2001 Seattle Mariners scored 927 runs and allowed 627 runs. Their (actual) win percentage was .716. Calculate the prediction errors committed by the Bill James formula for both the original exponent (2) and the modified exponent (1.84). Which formula does a better job vis-à-vis the 2001 Mariners?

Answer 1

Solution:

Given data,

Seattle Mainers scored = 927

Allowed runs = 627

Note: Pythogorean exception is a sports analytics formula devised by Bill James to estimate the % of games a baseball team ' should ' have won.

win % =

original exponent ( 2 )

= 0.686

   Actual win % = 0.716

Error = 0.03 (0.716 - 0.686)

Modified exponent ( 1.8 4) =

=  

= 0.672

Now error = 0.716 - 0.67

= 0.044  

**Note: Please comment below if you have any doubts....Thank you