Question

Problem 16-07 (Algorithmic)

Baseball's World Series is a maximum of seven games, with the winner being the first team to win four games. Assume that the Atlanta Braves are playing the Minnesota Twins in the World Series and that the first two games are to be played in Atlanta, the next three games at the Twins' ballpark, and the last two games, if necessary, back in Atlanta. Taking into account the projected starting pitchers for each game and the home field advantage, the probabilities of Atlanta winning each game are as follows:

Game                             1            2          3          4           5           6            7

Probability of Win       0.45     0.42     0.46    0.5       0.46      0.41       0.52

(A.) Set up a spreadsheet simulation model in whether Atlanta wins each game is a random variable. What is the probability that the Atlanta Braves win the World Series? If required, round your answer to two decimal places.

(B.) What is the average number of games played regardless of winner? If required, round your answer to one decimal place.

QUALITATIVE METHODS FOR BUSINESS 13 EDITION

Answer 1

here using rand() function to simulate 10000 probability values and comparing it with above,
if rand() is less than probability that game won by Atlanta otherwise lost

from above:

averaging all result values

a)

  probability that the Atlanta Braves win the World Series =0.0435+0.0955+0.1158+0.1580 =0.41

b)

average number of games played regardless of winner =5.8