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Use alpha of .25 and beta of .35. the demand for the first nine periods is...

Use alpha of .25 and beta of .35. the demand for the first nine periods is shown below. Obtain forecasts for periods five through eight.

period demand

1

 190
2 226
3 209
4 221
5 253
6 241
7 289
8 284
9 271

Do not round intermediate calculations. Round final answer to two decimal places.

1. What is the TAF5 forecast for period 5?

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Answer #1

Answer: As the value of 5th forecast is not provided, we assume it to be as equal to the demand of period 5, and Trend to be 0.

period demand Exponential smoothing, Ft Trend, Tt forecast including trend, FITt
1 190
2 226
3 209
4 221
5 253 253.00 0.00 253.00
6 241 253.00 0.00 253.00
7 289 250.00 -1.05 248.95
8 284 258.96 2.45 261.42
9 271 267.06 4.43 271.49
  • Alpha= 0.25, Beta= 0.35
  • the formula to be used in Exponential smoothing, Ft is

Ft+1= FITt + alpha*(At+1 – FITt)

FITt is Forecast including trend, Ft+1 means Exponential forecast demand of t+1'th period, if you want to find out the Trend smoothing Forecast = forecast of 3rd period = Forecast including of 2nd period + alpha*(Actual demand of 3rd period – Forecast including trend of 2nd period)

remember forecast of 1st month is Given

  • the formula to be used in Trend smoothing, Tt is

Tt+1= Tt + beta*(Ft+1 – FITt)

Ft+1 means Exponential forecast demand of t+1'th period, if you want to find out the Trend smoothing Forecast = forecast of 3rd period = Trend smoothing Forecast of 2nd period + beta*(Exponential forecast of 3rd period – Forecast including trend of 2nd period)

remember forecast of 1st month is taken as default

  • the formula to be used in Forecast including Trend, FIT is

FITt= Tt + Ft

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