Question

Use the following scenario to answer the questions below:

A campaign manager for a local politician is interested in the percentage of Leon County residents who intend to vote in the 2020 elections in November. Residents from each neighborhood in Leon County are randomly sampled. Using simple random sample techniques, larger neighborhoods have a larger number of residents randomly sampled and smaller neighborhoods have a smaller number of residents randomly sampled to get a representative sample.

Altogether 434 Leon County residents are sampled. The result is that 39% of the sampled Leon County residents intend to vote in the 2020 elections in November.

QUESTION:

In the midterm primaries in August 2018, 37% of Leon County residents voted.

Based on the information provided from the sample above, would it be surprising if 37% of all Leon county residents also intend to vote in the 2020 elections?

State YES or NO and use statistical reasoning (inference) to support your position.

Answer 1

Hypothesis:

Test statistic,

Critical value = z0.05 = 1.645 at 5% level of significance.

Since calculated z is less than critical value we accept null hypothesis at 5% level of significance. And conclude that it would be not surprising if 37% of all Leon county residents also intend to vote in the 2020 elections.