Question

Research question:

Predicting elections - How data analysis can be used in predicting the election, explain in brief.

Can demographic changes in population be utilized in lieu of polling for the purpose of predictive electoral analysis?

Please answer the above question.

Answer 1

My answer is entirely based on U.S. elections(Hope this will clear all your doubts)

The advent of the internet changed the way citizen learned about their politicians, but it also changed the way politicians learned about their citizens. By applying computer analytics to district maps, political operatives can now use income, age and the things you buy to predict where and how americans vote thanks to big data it's easier than ever for politicians to manipulate their voting districts and to gerrymander.

Every 10 years, after the U.S. census is collected, states are legally mandated to redraw their political districts. Their are couple rule for redistricting, but the main one is that new districts must be equal in population size i.e. one person one vote. But politicians often redraw districts in ways that benefit themselves. When one party disproportionately benefits from the way the districts map are drawn it's know as gerrymandering. Here's a simple way to understand it's consequences - gerrymendring allows politicians to choose their voters instead of voters choosing them Some gerrymandered districts are so weird that they have nicknames. Pennsylvania's 7th district are called "Goofy kicking donald duck". Maryland's 3rd district is known as the "Praying Mantis". These oddly shaped districts aren't new infact they have been around almost as long as our country.

In 1812, governor Elbridge Gerry of Massachusetts signed into law a state Senate map tilted to his advantage. A cartooonist thought it resembled a salamander, and thus the "Gerrymander was born". You can actually see how computer advances make gerrymandering more extreme. In the '70s, as soon as commercial computers become available both major political parties started using early mapping softwareto draw districts in ways they deemed to be more advantageous.

By 1990 redistricting cycle , the process had gone entirely digital. Computers were now small enoughand sophisticated enough to independently rum advance redistricting software. By the 2000 cycle , computers had the processing power to analyze "Big data" sets. This means they were able to assess people's individual lifestyle habits and determine which way they'd most likely vote.

Politicians used data to create better gerrymanders than humans could ever dream up. The redistricting software "Maptitude" cross references public data , such as demographics, race, and voting history with consumer data such as social media posts and maxing subscriptions. Algorithms then predict an individual's political learning.These datasets are what help mapmakers determinewhere to redraw district lines.

What will happen after 2020 census?

The software will continue to advance, but will we leave that power in the hands of politicians or will voters hand that power to citizens?