Question

The following data represents number of customers arriving at Quick Lube for an oil change between 9 and 11 AM over the past 6 days.

Day	1	2	3	4	5	6
Customers	21	22	20	22	23	24

Round all answers to 2 Decimal Places

a) Using the Naïve Method, how many customers would you forecast for Day 7?  

b) Using 3 day Moving Average, how many customers would you forecast for Day 7?

c) Using Exponential Smoothing with alpha = .2, how many customers would you forecast for Day 7? (hint: use Actual Value for period 1 as period 2 forecast)  

d) If the actual # of customers for period 7 was 25, compute the MAD statistic for each method (parts a, b and c) using periods 4, 5, 6 and 7 as data points.

Compute MAD for all three Methods:

Naive Method:  

3-Day Moving Average:  

Exponential Smoothing:  

e) Which method produces the best forecasts for Quick Lube?

Enter either (enter Exactly as displayed - copy and paste your answer):

Naive, 3-Day or Exponential

Answer 1