The above table shows the profit and loss for a company therefore the firm will wish to maximize profit.
| State of Nature | Maximum | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | S2 | S3 | ||
| D1 | 50 | 70 | -30 | 70 |
| D2 | 90 | 30 | -40 | 90 |
| D3 | -80 | -10 | 20 | 20 |
| D4 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 30 |
Under optimistic strategy the firm will select the maximum profit, Here the maximum profit will be under D2,
Thus, Select D2.
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The table shows both prospective profits and losses for a company, depending on what decision is made and what state of...
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Fantastic Distributing is in the process of trying to determine where they should schedule next year's production of a popular line of kitchen utensils that they distribute. Manufacturers in four different countries have submitted bids to Fantastic Distributing. However, a pending trade bill in Congress will greatly affect the cost to Fantastic Distributing due to proposed tariffs, favorable trading status, etc. After careful analysis, Fantastic Distributing has...
A payoff table is given as State of Nature Decision s1 s2 s3 d1 250 750 500 d2 300 - 250 1200 d3 500 500 600 a. What choice should be made by the optimistic decision maker? b. What choice should be made by the conservative decision maker? c. What decision should be made under minimax regret? d. If the probabilities of d1, d2, and d3 are .2, .5, and .3, respectively, then what choice should be made under expected...
The payoff table for a maximization problem is given below. Decision Alternative State of nature, s1 State of nature, s2 d1 8 10 d2 0 6 d3 5 0 d4 14 5 What is the recommended decision alternative using the conservative approach? d1 d4 d2 d3
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SEMINAR 3: PRACTICE PROBLEMS Consider the following payoff table in which Dl through D4 represent decisions, 1 S1 through S4 represent states of nature, and the values in the cells represent profits. S1 S4 S3 -20 40 100 -50 D1 60 120 30 60 40 D2 30 10 30 40 D3 80 D4 70 -60 The optimal decision under the maximax criterion is: a) DI b) D2 c) D3 d) D4
SEMINAR 3: PRACTICE PROBLEMS...
Problem 13-01 (Algorithmic) The following payoff table shows profit for a decision analysis problem with two decision alternatives and three states of nature: State of Nature Decision Alternative 210 130 75 130 280 75 a. Choose the correct decision tree for this problem 210 210 di S1 S1 280 280 130 130 S2 130 130 d2 d2 75 75 di S3 75 (iv) 130 210 S2 210 di S1 130 75 S2 130 210 210 S1 di $1 130 75...
Question 5 5 pts Use the table below to determine the expected value of perfect information. The probabilities for the states of nature are s1-0.20, s2-0.30 and s3-0.50 State of Nature s2 10,000 -5,000 15,000 15,000 9,000 10,000 20,0005,000 10,000 11,0004,000 15,000 s1 S3 Decision d1 d2 d3 d4 10700 d4 11,000 -4,00015 O 10,700 O 5,400 O 3,800 3,500 O 14,200
Question 5 5 pts Use the table below to determine the expected value of perfect information. The probabilities...
The following payoff table shows profit for a decision analysis problem with two decision alternatives and three states of nature: State of Nature Decision Alternative S1 S2 S3 d1 250 100 25 d2 100 100 75 The probabilities for the states of nature are P(s1) = 0.65, P(s2) = 0.15, and P(s3) = 0.20. (a) What is the optimal decision strategy if perfect information were available? S1 : - Select your answer -d1d2d1 or d2Item 1 S2 : - Select...
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6. Suppose that a decision maker faced with four decision alternatives and four states of natuure develops the following profit payoff table. State of Nature Decision Alternative S3 10 14 d1 10 d2 10 10 d3 13 10 8 d4 If the decision maker knows nothing about the probabilities of the four states of nature, what is the recommended decision using the optimistic, conservative, and minimax regret approaches? ANSWERS: 1. D2 2. a) Al b) A2...
The following profit payoff table shows profit for a decision analysis problem with two decision alternatives and three states of nature. Suppose that the decision maker obtained the probability assessments P(S1) = 0.65, P(S2) = 0.20, and P(S3) = 0.15. State of Nature Decision Alternative S1 S2 S3 d1 150 175 50 d2 175 75 100 Use the expected value approach to determine the optimal decision. The optimal decision is?
Three decision makers have assessed utilities for the following decision problem (payoff in dollars): State of Nature Decision Alternative S1 S2 S3 d1 30 40 -20 d2 80 100 -80 The indifference probabilities are as follows: Indifference Probability (p) Payoff Decision maker A Decision maker B Decision maker C 100 1.00 1.00 1.00 80 0.95 0.80 0.85 40 0.85 0.70 0.75 30 0.75 0.55 0.60 -20 0.60 0.25 0.50 -80 0.00 0.00 0.00 Find a recommended decision for each of...