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Problem 4.11 EQuestion Help the following table Data collected on the yearly registrations for Six Sigma seminar at the Quali

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Answer #1

In exponential smoothing, the forecast for a particular period is given using below formula

Forecast Previous Forecast+a*(Previous period actual -Previous period forecast)

In this case \alpha = 0.4

Forecast for period 1 is 6 which is the initial forecast given

Forecast for period 2 = 6+0.4*(5-6) = 5.6
Forecast for period 3 = 5.6+0.4*(7-5.6) = 6.2
Forecast for period 4 = 6.2+0.4*(5-6.2) = 5.7
Forecast for period 5 = 5.7+0.4*(4-5.7) = 5
Forecast for period 6 = 5+0.4*(9-5) = 6.6
Forecast for period 7 = 6.6+0.4*(8-6.6) = 7.2
Forecast for period 8 = 7.2+0.4*(6-7.2) = 6.7
Forecast for period 9 = 6.7+0.4*(11-6.7) = 8.4
Forecast for period 10 = 8.4+0.4*(12-8.4) = 9.8
Forecast for period 11 = 9.8+0.4*(12-9.8) = 10.7
Forecast for period 12 = 10.7+0.4*(15-10.7) = 12.4

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