Question

Problem 18-24 Zeus Computer Chips, Inc., used to have major contracts to produce the Centrino-type chips. The market has been declining during the past three years because of the dual-core chips, which it cannot produce, so Zeus has the unpleasant task of forecasting next year The task is unpleasant because the firm has not been able to find replacement chips for its product lines. Here is demand over the past 12 quarters: ps.The Tds Dee VEAR YEA AGO UNITS UNITS VEAB UNITS I 2,685 II 3,485 4,785 3,485 3,185 2,185 2,685 1,685 I II 3,485 II III 4,285 II III IV 2,985 IV 2,385 IV Use the decomposition technique to forecast demand for the next four quarters. (Round your intermediate calculations and final answers to 2 decimal places.) Forecast (Units) Period

Answer 1

Let’s use Minitab to use the decomposition method for quick result. The result screenshot is shown below

Minitab Untitled File Edit Data Calc Stat Graph Editor Tools Window Help Assistant 鸟国凹一门 fx Decomposition - Seasonal Analysis for Units Time Series Decomposition Plot for Units Seasonal Analysis for Units Multiplicative Model Time Series Decomposition Plot for Units Multiplicative Model Torecasts Detrended Data by Season Seasonal Indices Period Forecast 13 2125.35 5000 12 Variable Actual 1770 34 16 1133.26 Trendi Decomposition - Component Analysis for Units Forecasts 4000 Component Analysis for Units Multiplicative Model Accuracy Measures Time Series Decompos MAD 954 Original Data Detrended Data 3000 MSD 16757.9 500 12 4000 2000 1.0 3000 C1 C2 Period Units 2000 0.8 1 4785 4. 13 4 10 1000 3485 7 Indax lndos 2 4. 6 10 12 14 4285 Index Seasonally Adjusted Data Seas. Adi. and Detr. Data 5000 2985 200 3485 A000 2685 3000 3485 7 200 2000 2385 12 10 12 10 2 4 6 b Index Index Pr. Current Worksheet: Worksheet 1

The answer is

Period I = 2125.35

Period II = 1483.81

Period III = 1770.34

Period IV = 1113.26