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3.2) The following payoff table provides profits based on various possible decision alternatives and various levels of demand. States of Nature Demand Alternatives Alternative 1 Alternative 2 Alternative 3 Low Medium High 75 90 50 120 90 70 140 90 120 The probability of a low demand is 0.4, while the probability of a medium demand is 0.4 and high demand is 0.2 (a) What decision would an optimist make? (b) What decision would a pessimist make? (c) What is the highest possible expected monetary value? (d) Calculate the expected value of perfect information for this situation.

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. Home nert Page Layout Formulas Data Review View dd-Ins Cut Σ AutoSum ー E ゴWrap Text ta copy. в 1 프· ー· 鱼, Δ. : rーー 逻锂函Merge & Center. $, % , 弼,8 C Conditional Format CeInsert Delete Format Formatting, as Table w styles. ▼ ㆆ ▼ Sort &Find & 2 ClearFe Select Edting Format Painter Clipboard Alignment Number Cells DT DV DW DX DY DZ EA EB EC ED EF EG EH DEMAND ALTERNATIVES LOW MEDIUM HIGH MAXIMAX (SELECT MAXIMUM VALUE FROM EACH ROW AND MAXIMUM FROM ALL SELECTED VALUES) 4 75 120 140 140 6 120 120 OPTIMIST-MAXI MAX RULE : SELECT ALTERNATIVE 1 10 AS IT HAS HIGHEST VALUE OF MAXIMAX 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 1 Sheet1 Sheet4 PV FV DIVIDEND | EMV (MEAN STDV DEMAND ALTERNATIVES LOWMEDIUM HIGH MAXIMIN (SELECT MINIMUM VALUE FROM EACH ROW AND 75 90 50 140 90 120 MAXIMUM FROM ALL SELECTED VALUES) 75 90 50 120 70 PESSIMIST-MAXIMIN RULE : SELECT ALTERNATIVE 1 AS IT HAS HIGHEST VALUE OF MAXIMIN DEAR Sheet2 TIME SERIEScom REGRESSIONCAMERAEXP RETURN TREND MATRIXIN 08-01-2019. Home nert Page Layout Formulas Data Review View dd-Ins Cut E AutoSum Wrap Text aCopy в 1 프· ー· 鱼, Δ. : rーー 逻锂函Merge & Center. $, % , 弼,8 C Conditional Format CeInsert Delete Format Formatting, as Table w styles. ▼ ㆆ ▼ Sort &Find & 2 ClearFe Select Editing Format Painter Clipboard Alignment Number Cells DV35 DU DV DW DX DY DZ EA EB EC ED EF EG 21 LOW DEMAND PROBABILITY ALTERNATIVES MEDIUM HIGH 0.4 EMV EXPECTED MONETARY VALUE 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 0.4 EXPLANATION 75 90 50 120 90 70 140 90 120 106 $DW$23*DW25+$DX$23 DX25+$DY$23 DY25 90 SDW$23 DW26+$DX$23*DX26+$DY$23*DY26 72 SDW$23 DW27+SDX$23 DX27+SDY$23 *DY27 SELECT ALTERNATIVE 1 AS IT HAS HIGHEST EMV OF 106 EXPECTED VALUE OF PERFECT INFORMATION IT MEANS THAT FOR EACH PROBABILITY, YOU HAVE TO SELECT THE HIGHEST VALUE 112 34 35 36 37 38 39 1 Sheet1 Sheet4 PV FV DIVIDEND | EMV (MEAN STDV DW23 DW26+DX23 DX25+DY23 DY2 DEAR Sheet2 TIME SERIEScom REGRESSIONCAMERAEXP RETURN TREND MATRIXIN 08-01-2019

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