Question

shown below. Showing Delstate Accupuncture has compiled acupuncture appointments ALL work, complete the questions below. (Total: 20 points) r the last periods Period #Appts Period #Appts Workspace for Question #4 2. A0R 12 CA1 3. 372 13 777 486 804 14 6 628 16 one 482 17 844 40 10 20 600 Answer What is a naïve forecast for period 20? (2 pts) State vour rationale in ONE sentence 2 pts) Calculate the 5 period moving average period 20. (2 pts) 2 Answer Work Area: Calculate the 10 period moving average for period 20. (2 pts) Answer Work Area: Which method of these two moving averaqes would you recommend for use (you must circle one or the other, 5 or 10)? State why one brief statement (2 pts) I select 5PMA 10PMA Reason: 3. Calculate a weighted moving average for period 60. 20, 15 and .05. (2 pts) using the following weights, respectively: Answer Work Area: 920 ROUND TO 2 DECIMAL POINTS THROUGHOUT calculate the forneast for neriod 20 (8 pts) Answer Work Area (show work in space abovel) **-***u*-

Answer 1

1) As per Naive forecast, the forecast for a particular period is equal to the actual of the immediately previous period

So, Forecast for period 20 = Actual for period 19

F20 = A19 = 954 appointments

2a) Five Period Moving Average Method : Forecast = Average of Actuals of previous 5 periods

F20 = (A19+A18+A17+A16+A15) / 5 = (954+906+844+906+888)/5 = 900 appointments

2b)  Ten Period Moving Average Method : Forecast = Average of Actuals of previous 10 periods

F20 = (A19+A18+A17+A16+A15+A14+A13+A12+A11+A10)) / 5 = (954+906+844+906+888+804+777+641+696+600)/5 = 802 appointments

Now, we compare the 2 methods and calculate MAD, MSE and MAPE as below:

10 period moving. F11= 5 period moving. F6= (A1+A2+A3+A4+A5)/5 (A1+A2+A3+A4+A5+A6+A7+A8+A9+A10)/10 Period Appointments Error/ Square of Square of Forecast Abs Error Error/ Actual Forecast Abs Error Actual Error Error 1 300 2 408 3 372 4 486 5 466 14,786.56 23.03% 6 528 406.40 121.60 452.00 30.00 6.22% 7 482 900.00 466.80 18.39% 572 105.20 11,067.04 19,937.44 21.79% 9 648 506.80 141.20 539.20 10.13% 10 600 60.80 3,696.64 18.68% 566.00 486.20 30.14% 11 696 130.00 16,900.00 209.80 44,016.04 599.60 1,713.96 6.46% 525.80 17.97% 12 641 41,40 115.20 13,271.04 631.40 18.74% 549.10 29.33% 13 777 145.60 21,199.36 227.90 51,938.41 672.40 17,318.56 16.37% 26.67% 14 804 131.60 589.60 214.40 45,967.36 703.60 34,003.36 20.77% 30.02% 15 888 184,40 621.40 266.60 71,075.56 761.20 20,967.04 15.98% 26.75% 16 906 144,80 663.60 242,40 58,757.76 4.83% 16.90% 17 844 803.20 40.80 1,664.64 701.40 142.60 20,334.76 18.59% 843.80 6.87% 28,358.56 18 906 62.20 3,868.84 737.60 168.40 7,123.36 8.85% 771.00 19.18% 19 954 869.60 84.40 183.00 33,489.00 1,770.30 3,67,208.49 1,75,146.80 197.11% 215.56% SUM 1,424.00 MAD Average of Errors 101.71 196.70 MSE (Sum of the Error Squares)/(n-1) 13,472.83 45,901.06 MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) 14.08% 23.95%

We can see that 5 period moving average has a lower MAD, MSE and MAPE than the 10 point moving average. So, we can conclude that the 5 period moving average is recommended

3) The weights given are

w19=0.60

w18=0.20

w17=0.15

w16=0.05

The Actuals are A19=954, A18=906, A17=844, A16=906

So, the Forecast for period 20 using weighted moving average is

F20 = A19*w19 + A18*w18 + A17*w17 + A16*w16

F20 = 954*0.60 + 906*0.20 + 844*0.15 + 906*0.05

So, F20 = 925.5

4) Now, we are given F16=920 and Alpha = 0.20. Lets calculate forecast for period 20 using below table:

Exponential Forecast Start with F16=920 and then use F17 F16+ Alpha Period Appointments (A16-F16) where Alpha 0.20 Forecast F 920.00 16 906 17 844 917.20 902.56 18 906 19 954 903.25 20 913.40

Forecast for Period 20 = F20 = 913.40