For the U.S. economy, let gprice denote the monthly growth in the overall price level and...

For the U.S. economy, let gprice denote the monthly growth in the overall price level and let gwage be the monthly growth in hourly wages. [These are both obtained as differences of logarithms: gprice= Δlog(price) and gwage =Δlog(wage).] Using the monthly data in WAGEPRC.RAW, we estimate the following distributed lag model:

(i) Sketch the estimated lag distribution. At what lag is the effect of gwage on gprice largest? Which lag has the smallest coefficient?

(ii) For which lags are the t statistics less than two?

(iii) What is the estimated long-run propensity? Is it much different than one? Explain what the LRP tells us in this example.

(iv) What regression would you run to obtain the standard error of the LRP directly?

(v) How would you test the joint significance of six more lags of gwage? What would be the dfs in the F distribution? (Be careful here; you lose six more observations.)