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1. In a one-period model, the share price starts at S and in one month’s time...

1. In a one-period model, the share price starts at S and in one month’s time is either SU or S/U where U > 1. Assuming rates are zero, show that the risk-neutral probability p of the upmove is given by p = 1/(U + 1). Hence, or otherwise, deduce that the probability of the share price increasing in this model is always less than 50%.

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