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Which of these forecasts is the BEST? The one with a MAD of zero. The one...

Which of these forecasts is the BEST? The one with a MAD of zero. The one with the tracking signal of +4. The one with the tracking signal of -4. The one where the tracking signal times the MAD equals zero.

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1. D. tracking signal times MAD = 0

when we consider a MAD value of 0, We consider the positive and negative aspects of prediction which means that while the value of MAD would be 0, some months would have a positive deviation while some would have a negative deviation. But, when we use tracking signal, first of all a positive tracking signal would mean that there is more demand, a negative tracking signal would mean that the forecasted values are bigger, therefore a tracking signal of 0, would represent the best forecast when we consider tracking signal times MADm since it would make use of values at every stage , not just the final value.

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